In basketball, which shot should you take?
How much a shot is worth on the basketball court depends on the shooter’s location and whether or not he’s drawn a foul. But is the number of points a shot is worth the best way for a player to decide which type of shot to make?
In this lesson, students use probability and expected value to determine how much 3-point and 2-point shots are “worth” to different NBA players. They also model foul shots as independent events, and identify players for whom the best option is a trip to the free throw line.
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